How Early Can You See a Construction Project? A Toronto Back-Test of 986 Permits

Start free trial 7 days, 10 projects: Toronto projects from the planning record to the permit, with the builder named where there is one.

Most large new buildings in Toronto are public long before the building permit. Builtie matched 986 New Building permits issued since 2015 to the City's development applications: 88% of buildings worth $10M or more (272 of 308) had a public planning application on file first (almost always a rezoning or site plan), and the site plan was filed a median of about 4 years (48.8 months) before the permit was issued. The numbers were read October 24, 2026 and cover the City of Toronto only.

The answer in one table

"Signal" is the earlier of the most recent rezoning and the most recent site plan application filed before the permit application (any other application type when neither exists). Months are calendar months of 30.4 days. Read October 24, 2026.

How long before the permit the site plan was filed

For 186 of the 308 $10M+ buildings (60%) the site plan was filed three years or more before the permit was issued. 58 had no site plan on record at the same address, which includes projects whose address changed between planning and permit.

The lead is getting longer

The planning dataset starts in 2008, so a permit issued in 2015 can show at most seven years of history; the early figure is partly capped by that. The later years are not: projects permitted in 2023 to 2026 had been public a median of 72.5 months.

Four Toronto examples

Each date is the month the City records. No applicant, owner or planner is named here; the City's records name the planner, and the permit's applicant is not published by Builtie.

The signal ladder, measured

Construction data vendors often draw a ladder from land to permit with a lead time on each rung and no method behind it. This one shows what Builtie holds at each step and the lead it measured in Toronto, where it has the planning record. Elsewhere Builtie starts at the building permit.

Method

1. Permits. Every City of Toronto building permit with permit type "New Building" issued from January 1, 2015, read from the City's building permits open data (dataset). Revisions of one permit are grouped by permit number; the value is the highest stated on any revision.
2. Planning applications. The City's development applications open data (dataset): rezonings and Official Plan Amendments, site plans, condominiums, subdivisions and part-lot control, 2008 onward, one row per application and address.
3. Match. Same street name and street type, the permit's street number inside the application's number range, the application filed before the permit application and no more than 12 years before it.
4. Signal date. The earlier of the most recent rezoning and the most recent site plan before the permit. Taking the earliest application at the address instead would overstate the lead: multi-phase sites carry applications for earlier phases.
5. Excluded. Additions and alterations (interior fit-outs matched unrelated old rezonings) and Committee of Adjustment files (a different track, mostly houses).

Limits

• Toronto only. York Region's development applications are in Builtie (576 rows), but York's building permits are not, so there is nothing to test them against. No other market has a planning record in Builtie, and nothing here describes them.
• A floor, not a ceiling. A project whose address changed between planning and permit (land assemblies, renumbering) counts as having no signal.
• Street direction. The match ignores east and west; requiring it moves the $10M+ figure by one permit (271 of 308, 88.0%).
• Active permits. The City's permit dataset lists active permits; completed ones leave it, so the older years are a subset.
• No land title. Builtie does not hold ownership transfers, so the first rung of the ladder is not measured.
• Stated values. The band is the value declared on the permit, which is often low.

What this means if you sell to builders

Four years ahead is pipeline knowledge, not a bid. A trade cannot price a building whose design is still in site plan review. What it can do is learn the developer's name, watch the file and be known before the general contractor buys out the trades. On Builtie's current windows plumbing is typically chosen at 10% to 35% of the build and drywall at 25% to 45%, both after the permit.

In Builtie, GTA accounts see these applications in the Coming up tab, with a "Public since" date on Toronto projects, and can Watch a file to be emailed when it moves. Terms used here: site plan application, rezoning, Committee of Adjustment and award window.

How to cite

Builtie, "How early can you see a construction project?", Toronto earliest-signal back-test, read October 24, 2026, builtie.com/how-early-can-you-see-a-construction-project/.

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